Alex Marquez Is Just Trying to Survive. Bagnaia Knew This Was Coming.

There is a brutal irony playing out inside the Ducati camp right now.
Alex Marquez, the rider who finished runner-up in the 2025 MotoGP World Championship, is currently eighth in the standings with just 28 points from the opening three rounds. He is not fighting for podiums. He is not pressuring the leaders. He is, by his own admission, just trying to survive.
Those are his words, not ours. And they matter.
Because Francesco Bagnaia spent most of 2025 saying almost exactly the same thing about the GP25. He was mocked for it. Questioned. Told he had lost his edge. Told he simply could not handle the pressure of Marc Marquez as a teammate. The narrative around Bagnaia last year was ruthless. A two-time world champion reduced to making excuses about a motorcycle that his teammate was winning everything on.
Now Alex Marquez is on a factory GP26 and the tune has changed completely.
The GP24 Was the Star, Not the Rider
This is the conversation the paddock has been reluctant to have. Throughout 2025, multiple credible voices raised the question of whether the GP24 that Alex Marquez was racing was actually the superior package to the factory GP25 that Bagnaia and Di Giannantonio were struggling on. The data pointed that way. Bagnaia pointed that way too.
At Jerez in 2025, Bagnaia studied the telemetry and said directly that watching Alex Marquez, he could see the younger Spaniard doing things in braking and corner entry that the GP25 simply would not allow him to replicate. He was watching his own riding style from 2024, reproduced on a different bike by a different rider.
That was a classy and honest admission. It was also largely ignored.
Ducati have since privately acknowledged that a change to the ride height device on the GP25 proved incompatible with Bagnaia’s riding style, altering the balance and braking characteristics compared to the GP24 that had taken the Italian to within ten points of a third consecutive world title in 2024.
So it was not Bagnaia falling apart. It was Bagnaia on the wrong bike for his style. And Alex Marquez was on the right one.
The Factory Bike Trap
Multiple analysts warned during the second half of 2025 that moving Alex Marquez onto a factory GP26 could prove to be a curse rather than a reward, given what had already happened to Bagnaia trying to adapt from the GP24 to the newer machine. Those warnings were filed away and forgotten in the excitement around his promotion.
Three rounds into 2026 and they look prophetic.
The GP26 does not suit Alex Marquez’s riding style in the same way the GP24 did. Despite Ducati equipping him with the same factory spec machinery as Marc Marquez, Bagnaia and Di Giannantonio, Marquez has been largely restricted to the midfield.
He admits he is still around 20% off where he needs to be, acknowledging that the characteristics of the new bike affect his natural riding style considerably.
Sound familiar? It should. Bagnaia was saying almost word for word the same things throughout 2025.
Di Giannantonio Makes It Worse
The numbers tell the story clearly. Di Giannantonio at VR46 has scored more than double Alex Marquez’s points tally in the opening three rounds, sitting fourth in the championship while Marquez languishes eighth.
This is significant because both men are on factory spec Ducati machinery. The bike is the same. The results are not even close. That gap comes down entirely to riding style, confidence and adaptability on the GP26.
Diggia has taken pole position twice already this season. He has been Ducati’s best performing rider across all three rounds. Meanwhile Marquez is scoring points when he can and avoiding mistakes when he cannot do more.
After the Austin round, Marquez acknowledged he is struggling more than the others at Ducati, pointing directly to his riding style as the issue and admitting he is 50 points down on where he was at the same point in 2025.
Bagnaia Is Still In the Same Boat
The GP26 was supposed to fix things for Bagnaia too. The belief heading into 2026 was that the new bike would be closer in character to the GP24, which would suit Bagnaia’s style and give him a platform to fight back. Three rounds in and he is tenth in the championship. He is not the solution Ducati needs him to be right now either.
The manufacturer that won everything in 2024 and 2025 is currently being dismantled by Aprilia every single Sunday. The Aprilia RS-GP26 has won all three Grands Prix of the 2026 season, prompting Ducati to openly acknowledge they are playing catch-up.
What Comes Next
The extended break created by the Qatar postponement gives Alex Marquez and Ducati time to work. Marquez is approaching the gap positively, viewing the pause as an opportunity to reset and analyse what the GP26 needs from him before the European swing begins at Jerez.
He has the talent. He proved that beyond doubt in 2025. But 2025 was built on a bike that fitted him like a glove. The GP26 does not.
Bagnaia suffered through an entire season finding that out. Now it is Alex Marquez’s turn to live the same reality.
The younger Marquez spent most of last year collecting podiums while Bagnaia collected sympathy. Now the positions are reversed. And the lesson is the same one the paddock should have learned twelve months ago.
Sometimes the bike matters more than the rider. Bagnaia knew that in 2025. Nobody listened. Alex Marquez is finding out in 2026.